Прогнозування кількості крадіжок в умовах повоєнного часу в Україні

Abstract

Стаття присвячена виявленню найімовірніших тенденцій динаміки крадіжок у повоєнний час в Україні. На основі методики ймовірнісного прогнозу обчислено ймовірнісні показники кількості крадіжок у повоєнній Україні з урахуванням найсильніших факторів впливу на корисливу злочинність. Завдання ускладнене зниженими можливостями отримання точної соціально значущої інформації за умов воєнного часу, а ці дані дуже впливають на точність прогнозу.

In the article, based on the probabilistic prognosis methodology, probabilistic indicators of the number of thefts in post-war Ukraine are calculated. There is the most powerful factors influencing acquisitive crime taking into account. The task is complicated by the reduced ability to obtain accurate socially significant information in wartime conditions, and this data greatly influences the accuracy of the prognosis. Prognostication under martial law is difficult when choosing a scenario that requires accurate input data, and the scenario approach calls into question the accuracy of the prognosis within the selected scenario. In this case, an option was chosen that seemed promising and is based on the use of probabilistic statistical methods, which are closely related to randomness. The dynamics of the postwar number of thefts should certainly be influenced by the state of alcohol abuse among criminals, as well as the likelihood of drug and other intoxicant abuse among criminals. And these probabilities also need to be forecasted. If during the war this indicator among the general population increased by one third and up to 11 %, respectively, then after the war it should decrease among the general population and increase among the unemployed population, whose share will increase. As a result, it was found that a catastrophic scenario is unlikely, since the probable quantitative indicators of the number of thefts will be within the range of up to 5 % of the indicator for the number of delinquent projected population of the country, equality to which or exceeding which would lead the development scenario exponentially, that is, completely uncontrolled development path. It has been established that the most favorable prognosis of the number of thefts in post-war Ukraine makes it possible to eliminate panic in this matter. However, the probabilistic prognosis does not exclude the possibility of exponential growth of this type of criminal offense in post-war Ukraine over the course of 4–5 years.