Демографічна криза: проблеми повоєнної відбудови

Abstract

У статті розглядається демографічна криза як один із найгостріших викликів, що постають перед Україною в умовах повоєнної відбудови. З початком повномасштабної війни у 2022 році країна зазнала масштабного скорочення населення через міграцію, зниження народжуваності, зростання смертності та погіршення якості життя. Особливу увагу приділено аналізу новітніх досліджень міжнародних організацій, а також оцінкам українських науковців щодо масштабів вимушеної міграції та потенціалу повернення громадян після завершення активної фази війни.

The article examines the demographic crisis as one of the most acute challenges facing Ukraine in the context of post-war reconstruction. With the beginning of a full-scale war in 2022, the country experienced a large-scale population reduction due to migration, a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality, and a deterioration in the quality of life. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the latest research by international organizations, as well as the assessments of Ukrainian scientists on the scale of forced migration and the potential for the return of citizens after the end of the active phase of the war. The purpose of writing the article is a comprehensive study of the demographic crisis in Ukraine in the context of post-war reconstruction, in particular, identifying the main factors that caused the demographic reduction, analyzing the potential for the return of Ukrainian migrants and refugees. The research methodology is an interdisciplinary approach that combines methods of demographic, sociological, economic, and political analysis. The article highlights social and economic factors that influence the intentions of refugees to return to Ukraine. The concept of “dual intention” is considered, which combines the integration of Ukrainians in countries of temporary residence with maintaining their connection with the homeland and preparing for return. The main challenges facing the state in the context of demographic decline are outlined, in particular, the threat of loss of the labor force, the imbalance of the age structure of the population. Comprehensive approaches to solving the demographic problem are proposed: a transparent post-war reconstruction policy, creating incentives for return and support for families with children. The article forms the basis for further research and development of a state strategy in which human capital will be the central resource for the restoration and modernization of Ukraine.